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【A Certain Scientific Railgun】Thoroughly examine the possibility of a fourth term! The keyword is “20.

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The third season of “A Certain Scientific Railgun” aired in 2020 and was well-received, so here’s a summary of the possibility that a fourth season will be produced in the future!
Based on the sales and distribution results of the third season, as well as the stock and serialization status of the original work, I’m predicting whether or not a sequel will be aired, and if so, when!

To one of the greatest spin-off hits in history! The signature title of a certain series

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“A Certain Scientific Railgun” is an exceptional hit in the history of anime.
This is because although it is a spin-off of “A Certain Magical Index”, it continues to outperform the main story.

It was in February 2007 that “Railgun” was first serialized in the monthly comic Dengeki Daioh.
At the time, the original novella had already become a hit, selling more than one million copies in total (an average of more than 100,000 copies per volume), and was a strong candidate for later anime adaptation.
Therefore, a lot of effort was put into the comicalization of the work, and the project was being planned by two magazines, Dengeki Daioh and Monthly Shonen Gangan, and Gangan decided to serialize the work first, so Dengeki Daioh decided to give the No. 1 popular heroine of the work, Mikoto Misaka, the spotlight, and serialize a spin-off focusing on the science side. It seems that she was chosen to write and draw the story.

Motoi Fuyukawa, who was in charge of drawing, was a complete newcomer at the time, having been involved in doujin activities but had not made his commercial debut.
His commercial debut work, “Toaru Kagaku no Railgun,” began with the “Genso Gote Hen,” which depicted an incident related to a mysterious item called “Genso Gote (Level Upper),” which had occurred behind the scenes of the first volume of the forbidden book.

The story, which was related to the main story but independent of it, was highly praised by the original creators, and the flashy depiction of battles with different abilities by the artists who were far from being new, and the harmonious daily life of the main characters, Mikoto, Kuroko Shirai, Shikari Uiharu, and Ruiko Saten, attracted the attention of readers who were not familiar with “Forbidden Books” and quickly gained popularity.
It was featured on the cover of the October 2008 issue of Dengeki Daioh, which was released just before the anime adaptation of “Forbidden Books,” and the comics became a huge hit, selling more than one million copies in total through volume 3.

As a result of the steady increase in fans, it was decided to make a TV anime despite being a spin-off.
Nowadays, it is not unusual for spin-offs to be adapted into anime, such as “Is It Wrong to Seek a Sword Oratoria Dungeon?
Side Story”, “Sword Art Online Alternative: Gun Gale Online”, and “Scarlet Flaming Aria AA”, but at the time, this was an exceptional event.
Furthermore, this anime of Railgun became a huge hit, selling well over 20,000 Blu-ray and DVD discs, surpassing the sales of the main series, Forbidden Books, and becoming the signature title of a certain series.

Disc sales for the third season are strong! Distribution is also doing very well, so there is no blind spot in the 4th term!

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The second season of “Toaru Kagaku no Railgun S” follows the same pattern.
The second season of “Toaru Kagaku no Railgun S” follows the same pattern, with the first season airing the original story of the Sisters, and the second season airing the original story of the Silent Party.
Although the sales dropped a little because it had been almost 4 years since the first season, it still became a big hit selling 17,000 copies.

With sales this high, it was naturally expected that a third season would be produced soon, but ……3 “A Certain Scientific Railgun T” had to wait until 2020, about seven years after the second season.

In the past seven years, the anime disc market has shrunk significantly, and nowadays, it is easy to watch it all at once through video distribution services such as Amazon Prime Video and ABEMA.
Naturally, we can’t hope to achieve the disc sales we had seven years ago, but even so, the third season of Railgun has recorded stable sales, with each volume selling over 5,000 copies.
This is on par with “Machikado Mazoku” and “I’ve been reborn as a villainous daughter with only an Otome game’s doom flag…”, both of which won their second seasons, and is enough for a sequel to be produced.

Moreover, the success of the third season is not limited to disc sales.
As of November 2020, it has recorded 160 million views on the Chinese video sharing site “Biribiri Video”.
Even if the sales of the discs are only 2 to 3 thousand copies, this number is enough to make a second season possible.

In addition to this, electromagnetic guns have an overwhelmingly strong original story.
The total number of copies of the series related to the Forbidden Book is 31 million, and although the total number of copies of the Railgun alone at this point is unknown, it is estimated to be 6.8 million copies as of volume 11, and now that volume 16 has been released, it is estimated to have grown to 8-9 million copies.

With such a track record, we can expect a great deal of investment from overseas and from publishers, so we can say that the possibility of a fourth season is extremely high.



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