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To Aru Majutsu no Index: A Certain Magical Index – A thorough examination of the possibilities of the fourth season! How do you rate the third season…?

How do you rate the third term? Sales were stable despite the bad press in some quarters

出典 : Amazon.co.jp

Disc sales of the first and second seasons of Forbidden Book are very high, and the average number of discs sold including the boxed set exceeds 20,000.
The box office revenue of the movie version was 500 million yen and 60,000 discs, and Railgun sold 35,000 copies including boxes for the first season and 20,000 copies for the second season.

However, due to the recession of the discs, and the 8 years that have passed since the 2nd season, the 3rd season has not reached the same level of sales as in the past.
Even so, it sold about 4300 copies on average, which is a good result for an anime that has sold well in recent years.

However, the third season has been quite divided and there are many anime fans who have criticized the show harshly.
In fact, if you search for “third season of Forbidden Book”, the suggestion keywords include “unintelligible”, “terrible”, and “failure”. (As of February 2020)

The reason for this is obvious, the third season seems to have been overstuffed.

Despite the fact that it was a two-period broadcast like the first and second periods, the first two periods consisted of 6 or 7 books of the original work, whereas the third period was 9 books.
Considering that the third season of “Sword Art Online” aired 10 books worth of story in 4 seasons, it is not enough to cover in 2 seasons.
As a result, the series was so rushed to the point of being called a digest, and the artwork was inconsistent due to the lack of time, which probably led to it being heavily criticized by some anime fans.

On the other hand, if you look at the trends of just the third season, the sales itself has been relatively stable.
The first volume sold less than 5,000 copies, and the second and third volumes were both down slightly.
From volume 4 onwards, it was completely stable at just over 4,000 copies, and it remained above 4,000 copies until the final volume.

The visualization of fixed fan cohesion has made it much more likely that a fourth season of Forbidden Book will be produced in the future.
While it’s not as successful as it used to be, it’s not often that an anime consistently sells over 4,000 copies in recent years, which is enough for a sequel in this day and age.
The fact that the original work has been an overwhelming sales success is also a plus in terms of investment.

On the other hand, there are a few concerns as well.
I get the impression that the To Aru series is becoming too big and too small to handle, and the production of the third season was done as part of a larger project that was simultaneously working on various projects such as the third season of Railgun and the anime adaptation of To Aru Kagaku no Ippodo.
Whether or not an anime adaptation project limited to the fourth season of Forbidden Book will be launched in the future is a delicate matter.

Since Railgun’s third season will be two cool seasons and they will not be doing the originals, it is expected that the original work will be digested quite a bit, and it will be some time before the stock for the fourth season is saved up.
Therefore, if they are going to progress the fourth season of both films at the same time, it’s going to take a while to be announced.

What is the current status of the original story?

出典 : Amazon.co.jp

If a fourth season is produced, it will be adapted from the original New Testament Volume 1, but that New Testament was completed with Volume 22 Rebirth, which was released in 2019.
Then, in February 2020, a new chapter will be published, The New Testament To Aru Majutsu no Index, which will be a new chapter in the series.
There is no indication of “volume 1”, but this was the case with New Testament, so there is no doubt that it will continue to develop as a new series.

Therefore, the forbidden book is in a position to be confirmed to continue.
It’s unlikely to be completed before 2024, the 20th anniversary of the series.

If that happens, there is a possibility that a fourth season will be produced as a project to celebrate this 20th anniversary.
Boogie Pop is Not Laughing was also made into a TV anime to celebrate the 20th anniversary, and “Mage Orphen Hagure Journey” was also re-animated to celebrate the 25th anniversary.
When celebrating the anniversary of a historical hit work, an anime adaptation is the most appropriate project.

Summary

The third season felt a bit rushed, so I really hope they take their time making the fourth season.
Waiting until 2024 is a bit too long, but if it’s going to be a quality anime, I’m not complaining.
Of course, if they can do a high quality anime adaptation sooner than that, then so much the better!

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